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Outlook For The U.S.
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The US Economy Is In Collapse
In many ways the US is doomed, and a wise course of action would be to either get out while it's possible to liquidate and get your money out, or find a good spot in the country and dig in.
Here are some points to consider:
- The US Workforce is aging, and "official" unemployment is over 8% with the real unemployment now somewhere between 12% and 15%. The industrial heart of America has been ripped out and shipped overseas. Where are the jobs? Gone. Just look at the US auto industry: Collapsed and bankrupt. What is the employment outlook in the US? Grim, with millions of unemployed and underemployed people scrambling to pay the bills. What about the young people? They don't have a lot of options apart from joining the military and participating in US foreign adventurism.
- 76 Million American baby-boomers have just started reaching retirement age, and only 53% have any form of private retirement savings account. Of the ones who do have retirement savings, the median balance is only $100,000. Those are the figures of the Congressional Research Center from a study published in April of 2009 using data from 2007. How much of those retirement savings were lost in the market and real estate crash since 2007? We suspect that the median balance of boomer retirement savings is no longer anywhere close to $100k.
- Meanwhile, real wages are falling and have been for years... even using the governments "official" rate of inflation.
- The residential housing market has collapsed in the US, which was a slow-moving economic train wreck for the past 3 years, and the US is now entering a commercial real estate collapse.
- The commercial real estate collapse is causing a banking collapse: there were more bank failures in the first quarter of 2009 than in all of 2008, and every Friday we receive news that more banks have been forced to merge with a larger and more stable bank. Some of these bank failures were banks with only a few branch offices, but others have been banks with up to 1,600 branch and ATM locations. As the commercial real estate collapse gets worse expect the number of bank failures to increase.
- The US government continues to borrow over 2 Billion Dollars per day to pay for government spending. That money has to be provided by foreign investors who are becoming leery of investing in the US Dollar. What's the US doing? Buying it's own debt. How long before foreigners stop buying US debt and the US slips into an Argentinian-style currency collapse and hyperinflation? We don't know, but history tells us that it's not going to be a long wait at this point.
These are events and trends beyond the control of any one person. They are trends that individuals can observe, hopefully avoid and possibly exploit, but not change. Sadly, most Americans still haven't recognized the paradigm shift. The majority assumes this is just a "rough patch" and the economy will recover like it always has. We see no evidence that this is the case. The United States, with one of the most well-armed populations in the world, is entering economic collapse. As Gerald Celestine puts it: "When people have nothing left to lose, they lose it." For years we've been telling people to get out while they could. Few listened when the party was really rocking and home prices were sky-high and banks allowed home-owners to treat their house like an ATM machine. We're now seeing an increase in the number of people who are interested in finding a place to ride out the storm, but fewer have the ability to do so.
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